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Op-ed, January 24, 2007
Amanda Roraback
Is it possible that Iran is not
solidly behind Shi’a militia attacks on Americans in
Iraq as reported by the L.A. Times on Tuesday,
January 23, 2007. Iran relishes a United States so
bogged down in Iraq that it cannot attack the
Islamic Republic. But the cost to Iran of generating
turmoil in the neighboring country -- a specter
often raised by the Bush administration -- may be
too high a price to pay simply to keep America at
bay.
For one thing, Iran has its own Sunni and Arab
minorities who could cause real problems if they got
swept up in Iraq’s sectarian conflict. And if things
got out of hand and Iraqi Sunnis, perhaps backed by
Sunni patrons, began to turn their rage against
Iran, the Islamic Republic may be pushed to
retaliate in self-defense inciting a full-blown
regional war.
Religious Iranian Shiites were delighted when the
fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s dictator, opened
passage for pilgrims visiting Shiite holy sites in
Najaf and Kerbala. But the violence that erupted in
Iraq in the last couple of years now makes the
journey too perilous a venture for many Iranians to
attempt.
Speculation that Iran ambitiously hopes to take over
Iraq is equally short-sighted. Despite religious
beliefs shared by Shiites in both countries, ethnic
Persians of Iran and Arabs from Iraq are worlds
apart linguistically and culturally. An Iraqi
tourist visiting Iran stands out like an American in
Paris. And, like the French, the Iranians are proud
of their rich Persian culture and history.
Furthermore, although Iraqis and Iranians remain
civil toward each other, the memory of nearly a
decade of war has etched antagonistic memories in
the minds of the population. Two-story-high pictures
of martyrs still grace billboards around the country
and veteran cemeteries still buzz with mourners. To
this generation, at least, Iraqis are associated
with bombs and chemical weapons.
Rather than trying to frustrate and divert the U.S.
by maintaining what analysts have described as
"controlled chaos" in Iraq Iran could pursue its
true interest by cultivating a stable, friendly
regime next door. Aside from assuring that Iraq is
not over overrun by belligerent elements inclined
towards staging a repeat of the 1980 war, a stable
Iraq could prove to be a lucrative trading partner
and even a powerful ally against common enemies. It
its current state, it is just a drain on Iranian as
well as American resources.
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