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In 2002, U.S.
President George Bush included Iran in what he
described as an "Axis
of Evil" that also included North Korea and
Iraq. U.S.-Iranian relations have been tense ever
since. But what threat does Iran actually pose?
Following is a short list of possible tactics Iran
could employ if the regime decided to attack the
West.
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Closing the Strait of Hormuz
Iran is strategically located on the northern
coast of the narrowest channel for marine
traffic between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian
Sea -- the transport route of 20% of the world's
oil supply. By closing the Strait Iran could
drastically disrupt the flow of oil affecting
worldwide petroleum prices. They could also
entrap and destroy naval forces stuck in the
Persian Gulf.
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Withholding Iran's oil
Iran is the world's fourth largest producer of
crude oil. Any disruption in the export of
Iran's gas and petroleum would cause oil prices
to skyrocket internationally and badly hurt the
economies of the countries that rely on Iran's
oil and gas supply for fuel -- particularly
China and India. On the other hand, about
80% of Iran's total export earnings come from
the sale of oil (40-50% of the government's
entire budget). It's unlikely that Iran would
risk such a blow to its own economy in the cause
of war.
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Encouraging Shi'a militias in Iraq to attack
U.S. troops
Iraq's current Shi'a-dominated regime is closely
allied to it's Persian Shi'a neighbor. One of
Iraq's largest parties, SCIRI ("Supreme Council
for Islamic Revolution in Iraq") was formed in
1982 in Iran and many high-ranking members of
the Iraqi government were born or have spent
time in exile in Iran. Iraq's Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki lived in Iran in the 1980s. The
Ayatollah Ali Sistani, a very influential Shi'a
cleric in Iraq, was born in Iran. And militant
Islamist Muqtada Al Sadr was a big supporter of
the Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran's former Supreme
Leader, and has family ties in Iran.
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Activating Hezbollah
Iran has long been associated with Hezbollah, a
Shi'a Islamist political organization based in
Lebanon that Iran helped create in 1982. With
the help of Iranian arms, training and financial
support, Hezbollah fought an inconclusive war
with Israel in 2006.
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Destabilizing countries
with large numbers of Shi'a Muslims
Including Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
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Attack Israel
Iran has the capability to fire missiles on
Israel and American bases stationed in the Oman,
Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq.
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