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In June 1981, Israel destroyed the Iraqi Osirak
nuclear reactor near Baghdad damaging Iraq's ability
to produce nuclear weapons. Could Israel or the
United States do the same to Iran?
COULD IRAN'S
NUCLEAR FACILITIES BE DESTROYED?
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Some experts say that although
the attack on Osirak technically set back Iraq's
nuclear weapon capabilities, it heightened
Saddam Hussein's determination to step up Iraq's
nuclear weapons program.
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Unlike Iraq, Iran has the raw
materials and technological expertise to produce
nuclear weapons on its own. Iran has uranium
mines in Yazd and is capable of enriching
uranium utilizing its own gas centrifuges.
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Iran's nuclear facilities are
farther away from Israel than Iraq's Osirak
reactor. In order for Israel to attack Iran's
facilities the country would need to fly through
Turkish, Saudi Arabian, Jordanian or Iraqi
airspace. It's unlikely that Turkey, Saudi
Arabia or Jordan would allow Israel to fly over
their countries in order to attack another
Islamic country. If the U.S. allowed Israel to
fly over Iraq, it would be tantamount to
endorsing Israel's actions.
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Iran has a number of nuclear
facilities (in Bushehr, Natanz and Arak) located
far apart from each other. The attack would have
to target all of these locations in order to be
effective.
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Iran has heavily fortified its
nuclear facilities employing advanced Russian
air defense systems to guard them. Many of the
most sensitive areas have been built underground
making them even more difficult to penetrate.
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Even if Bushehr, Natanz and Arak
are destroyed, Iran probably has duplicate
nuclear sites and the knowledge to rebuild
reactors using locally mined uranium.
POSSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES OF AN ATTACK
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An attack on Iran's nuclear
facilities would be viewed as an act of
aggression by Iran and internationally and
provide Iran with the justification and impetus
needed to create a defensive nuclear weapons
program.
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An attack would undoubtedly
prompt Iran to pull out of the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation
(NPT) treaty as North Korea did in 2003. Without
the agreement, Iran would no longer be subject
to inspections allowing it free rein in the
construction of nuclear weapons. Without the
constraints of the NPT, Iran would be a much
bigger threat.
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An attack on Iran would further
isolate and demonize Israel and the U.S.
internationally.
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Since Russia is heavily invested
in the Bushehr nuclear facility, an attack would
greatly damage relations between the U.S. and
Russia -- especially if any of the 100s of
Russian workers currently employed at the
facility are killed or wounded in the assault.
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Although many Iranians currently
oppose the domestic policies of their regime, an
attack on the country would encourage Iranians
to rally behind their government in a
nationalistic show of force. The state of war
would also give the religious regime cause to
violate civil rights and crackdown on
dissidents.
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Unlike Iraq, Iran has the power
to retaliate.
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